RESUMO
Using two different attack rates, 20% and 30%, the paper attempts to project several possible outcomes for the Jamaican economy in the event of a severe pandemic. In addition to forecasting the possible loss in man hours for the economy, the study uses the Monte Carlo modelling technique to provide estimates of the death and hospitalization rates among the 0-19, 20-64 and 65(+)-year age cohorts while extra-polating the demand for healthcare providers.
Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças , Previsões , Virus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N1/patogenicidade , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Comércio , Mão de Obra em Saúde , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Influenza Humana/mortalidade , Jamaica/epidemiologia , Método de Monte Carlo , OcupaçõesRESUMO
Using two different attack rates, 20% and 30%, the paper attempts to project several possible outcomes for the Jamaican economy in the event of a severe pandemic. In addition to forecasting the possible loss in man hours for the economy, the study uses the Monte Carlo modelling technique to provide estimates of the death and hospitalization rates among the 0-19, 20-64 and 65+-year age cohorts while extra-polating the demand for healthcare providers.
A partir de dos tasas de ataque diferentes - 20% y 30% - el presente trabajo persigue dar una proyección de varios posibles resultados para la economía jamaicana en caso de una pandemia severa. Además de pronosticar la posible pérdida en horas-hombre para la economía, este estudio usa la técnica de modelación Monte Carlo para dar estimados de las tasas de muerte y hospitalización entre las cohortes de 0-19, 20-64 y 65+ años de edad, mientras que extrapola la demanda de proveedores del cuidado de la salud.
